Currently 19 of 21 Predictions (90%) came true in scope and timing! The prediction track record increased from 79% to now 90% as I reduced the number of predictions by now making mainly predictions which have a substantial higher probability to come true not only in scope but also in “timing”. One should keep in mind that even a 50% rate would be an extraordinary success, and if you recall that only very few people actually foresaw the crisis to occur.
When I first started making these predictions, the majority of market watchers could not even begin to imagine that banks or even the whole financial system was at the brink of collapse. Back in late 2006 I was amongst the very few economists stating that businesses around the globe and the worldwide economy would come to experience its worst economic crisis since the great depression.
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